Corriere dello Sport report that Juventus will be sentenced on Monday over alleged irregularities in the club’s payments to players and undue relationships with players’ agents and other clubs, and the federal prosecutor could ask for a 9-12 point penalty.
This isn’t the first time Juventus have been sentenced, and they were previously successful in appealing against a previous 15-point penalty, leading to the current hearing.
But if Juventus are unsuccessful this time, they would drop out of the Champions League places. Even a nine-point penalty would be enough to make it almost impossible to finish in the Serie A top four.
That would be beneficial to Arsenal, who are still waiting to find out which pot they’ll end up in for next year’s Champions League draw.
The Champions League group stage draw places teams in four pots, with Pot 1 for various league champions and 2022/23 European trophy winners, and the rest of the pots determined by each club’s UEFA coefficient.
There are lots of factors still at play, but as it stands, Arsenal would be in Pot 3. That means that when the draw takes place, the Gunners would draw a team from Pot 1 and Pot 2, which contain most of the best teams in Europe.
As it stands, Pot 2 is likely to contain the likes of Real Madrid, Juventus, Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, RB Leipzig, and FC Porto. Manchester United will also be in Pot 2, but Arsenal can’t draw them.
If Arsenal can sneak into Pot 2 themselves, they’d avoid facing any of the other Pot 2 teams, drawing a team from Pots 1, 3, and 4 instead.
That brings us to how Juventus’ participation in the Champions League affects Arsenal
If Juventus are sanctioned and drop out, they’ll be replaced by one of the other Serie A teams, most likely 5th-place AC Milan.
Whilst Juventus have a better coefficient score than Arsenal, Milan don’t. So Juventus would be in Pot 2 ahead of Arsenal, but if Milan are the team to qualify, Arsenal would step up to Pot 2 instead.
There are still other ways for Arsenal to make it into Pot 2. If Inter Milan win the Champions League final, or one of the teams who are currently expected to qualify drop out, that may help.
The situation remains complex at this stage, but it will become increasingly clear over the coming weeks.